American troops will remain in Iraq for another twenty years, Dr. John Nagl, a former U.S. Army officer, said in a lecture at the Middle East Institute today.
On Tuesday, in accord with the U.S.-Iraqi Status of Forces Agreement agreed to last fall, American troops will withdraw from bases in Iraqi cities and relocate to forward operating bases in the desert. The U.S. military will continue to assist the Iraqi military in a support capacity until December 31, 2011, when all U.S. forces are slated to exit the country.
According to a March ABC News/BBC/NHK poll, 81 percent of Iraqis want the U.S. to withdraw by 2011 and almost 50 percent want the U.S. to withdraw even sooner.
Nagl said that, more than six years after the U.S. military invaded Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein, a U.S. military presence in the country is still necessary. For that reason, a complete U.S. withdrawal of U.S. troops by December 31, 2011 is improbable, Nagl said. The former army officer said that Iraqi generals have privately admitted that the U.S. will need to remain in Iraq after 2011. He believes that Iraqi government officials will eventually “come to their senses” and allow U.S. forces to remain in Iraq past 2011.
Though the Iraqi military has come a long way toward developing its combat units, Nagl thinks that it has a long way to go before it becomes truly self-reliant. It still needs to upgrade it logistical capacity, its air force, and its military institutions, Nagl said.
Despite these concerns, though, Nagl thinks that the sectarian violence that raged in Iraq between 2004 and 2006 is unlikely to reoccur. At this point, the biggest threats to Iraq’s security are the border disputes between the Kurds, who live in northern Iraq, and the central government.
Iraqi President Nouri al-Maliki has declared Tuesday “National Sovereignty Day,” in honor of the U.S. withdrawal. But, Nagl said, that may have been a mistake.
“I am afraid that, [by Al-Maliki declaring the holiday,] he is taking risks with the security of his population,” Nagl said.
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